Introduction

On this page, you find a selection of online publications that my professional clients use during my skills training courses. These publications focus on four central concepts in country risk analysis: transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk.

I also recommend these publications to students of my Country Risk Analysis skills training at Maastricht University and my Country Risk Analysis course at Maastricht Summer School.

I am aware that this is a rather small selection of online publications on transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk. However, their content is highly relevant to start with any country risk research.

These links were all up-to-date in January 2021. If you have questions or suggestions regarding online publications on transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk, please contact me.

Transfer Risk and Convertibility Risk

  1. A.M. Best – Country Risk Information
  2. A.M. Best – Best’s Methodology and Criteria. Evaluating Country Risk
  3. A.M. Best – Best’s Transfer and Convertibility Ceilings [pdf file]
  4. Bank of Jamaica – Standards of Sound Business Practices – Country and Transfer Risk [pdf file]
  5. CFA Institute – Country Risk: A Tale of Two Models
  6. COFACE – Economic Studies and Country Risks
  7. Control Risks – RiskMap 2020
  8. Credendo – Country Risk and Insights [Convertibility and Transfer Risk]
  9. Euler Hermes – Economic Research
  10. Fed (New York) – Risks in U.S. Bank International Exposures [pdf file]
  11. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – Transfer Risk Definition
  12. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – Country Risk Classification [Convertibility and Transfer Risk]
  13. Rabobank Group – Economic Research publications [includes country risk reports]
  14. Social Science Research Network – Delving into Country Risk
  15. Social Science Research Network – What drives financial crises in emerging markets?
  16. The Strategic CFO – Transfer Risk
  17. University Western Australia – Country risk ratings: An international comparison [pdf file]
  18. University Western Australia – The International Country Risk Guide: An Empirical Evaluation [pdf file]

Sovereign Risk

  1. Bank Int. Settlements – Interpreting sovereign spreads [pdf file]
  2. Bank Int. Settlements – Basel II, Sovereign Ratings and Transfer Risk – External versus Internal Ratings [pdf file]
  3. Bank Int. Settlements – Common factors in emerging market spreads [pdf file]
  4. Brueghel – Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment
  5. Fed (New York) – Sovereign Credit Ratings
  6. Fed (New York) – Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [pdf file]
  7. Fed (New York) – One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade [pdf file]
  8. Fed (New York) – What Moves Sovereign Bond Markets? The Effects of Economic News on U.S. and German Yields [pdf file]
  9. Fed (San Fransisco) – Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector [pdf file]
  10. Fitch – Rating Definitions
  11. HWWA – Sovereign Credit Ratings, Emerging Market Risk and Financial Market Volatility [pdf file]
  12. Inter-American Development Bank – On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings
  13. Inter-American Development Bank – Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads [pdf file]
  14. International Monetary Fund – Sovereign Ceilings ‘Lite’? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies [pdf file]
  15. International Monetary Fund – Haircuts: Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005
  16. International Monetary Fund – Rating the Raters of Country Creditworthiness [pdf file]
  17. International Monetary Fund – Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets [pdf file]
  18. International Monetary Fund – Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises [pdf file]
  19. International Monetary Fund – Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs [pdf file]
  20. International Monetary Fund – Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology [pdf file]
  21. Liberty/NBER – Understanding Emerging Market Bonds [pdf file]
  22. Moody’s – Rating Symbols and Definitions, January 2020 [pdf file]
  23. Moody’s – Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2007 [pdf file]
  24. Salomon Brothers – The Risks of Sovereign Lending: Lessons from History [Word file]
  25. Social Science Research Network – Estimating Default Probabilities of Emerging Market Sovereigns: A New Look at a Not-So-New Literature
  26. Social Science Research Network – Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings
  27. Standard&Poor’s – Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2018 Annual Sovereign Default And Rating Transition Study

Political Risk

  1. BBC News – Political risk returns to the financial markets
  2. Forbes – Political Risk Can’t Be Avoided, But It Can Be Managed
  3. Globe and Mail – Markets ignore political risks until economic growth threatened
  4. IMF – How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?
  5. INC.com – How to Calculate Political Risk [by Ian Bremmer]
  6. Institute for Economics and Peace – The Economic Cost of Violence Containment. A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Global Cost Of Violence [pdf file]
  7. MIGA – Investment And Political Risk In Conflict-Affected And Fragile Economies [pdf file]
  8. RAND – The cost of terrorism in Europe
  9. Tufts University – Building Capacity for Geopolitical Risk Analysis
  10. World Economic Forum – Conflict costs us $13.6 trillion a year. And we spend next to nothing on peace
Transfer Risk, Convertibility Risk, Sovereign Risk, Political Risk (Online Publications)

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