Introduction

On this page, you find a selection of online publications that my professional clients and my students use during my skills training sessions and Summer Schools. They focus on four central concepts in country risk analysis: transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk.

These are also the online resources that I recommend to students of my Country Risk Analysis Summer School (Macro-Economic and Political Risk Drivers of Emerging Markets) at Maastricht University.

I am aware that this is a rather small selection of online publications on the concepts transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk. However, their content is highly relevant to conduct country risk research.

If you have any questions or suggestions regarding these online publications on transfer risk, convertibility risk, sovereignty risk and political risk, please contact me.

Transfer Risk and Convertibility Risk

  1. A.M. Best – Country Risk Information and Best’s Methodology and Criteria. Evaluating Country Risk and Best’s Transfer and Convertibility Ceilings [pdf file]
  2. Bank of Jamaica – Standards of Sound Business Practices – Country and Transfer Risk [pdf file]
  3. CFA Institute – Country Risk: A Tale of Two Models
  4. COFACE – Economic Studies and Country Risks
  5. Control Risks – RiskMap 2020
  6. Credendo – Country Risk and Insights [Convertibility and Transfer Risk]
  7. Euler Hermes – Economic Research
  8. Fed (New York) – Risks in U.S. Bank International Exposures [pdf file]
  9. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development – Transfer Risk Definition and Country Risk Classification [Convertibility and Transfer Risk]
  10. Rabobank Group – Economic Research publications [includes country risk reports]
  11. Social Science Research Network – Delving into Country Risk and What drives financial crises in emerging markets?
  12. The Strategic CFO – Transfer Risk
  13. University Western Australia – Country risk ratings: An international comparison [pdf file] and The International Country Risk Guide: An Empirical Evaluation [pdf file]

Sovereign Risk

  1. Bank Int. Settlements – Interpreting sovereign spreads [pdf file] and
    Basel II, Sovereign Ratings and Transfer Risk – External versus Internal Ratings [pdf file] and Common factors in emerging market spreads [pdf file]
  2. Brueghel – Rating agencies and sovereign credit risk assessment
  3. Fed (New York) – Sovereign Credit Ratings and Determinants and Impact of Sovereign Credit Ratings [pdf file] and One Reason Countries Pay Their Debts: Renegotiation and International Trade [pdf file] and What Moves Sovereign Bond Markets? The Effects of Economic News on U.S. and German Yields [pdf file]
  4. Fed (San Fransisco) – Sovereign Debt Crises and Credit to the Private Sector [pdf file]
  5. Fitch – Rating Definitions
  6. HWWA – Sovereign Credit Ratings, Emerging Market Risk and Financial Market Volatility [pdf file]
  7. Inter-American Development Bank – On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings and Global Factors and Emerging Market Spreads [pdf file]
  8. International Monetary Fund – Sovereign Ceilings ‘Lite’? the Impact of Sovereign Ratings on Corporate Ratings in Emerging Market Economies [pdf file] and Haircuts: Estimating Investor Losses in Sovereign Debt Restructurings, 1998-2005 and Rating the Raters of Country Creditworthiness [pdf file] and Debt Crises and the Development of International Capital Markets [pdf file] and Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises [pdf file] and Sovereign Debt Defaults and Financing Needs [pdf file] and Sovereign Credit Ratings Methodology [pdf file]
  9. Liberty/NBER – Understanding Emerging Market Bonds [pdf file]
  10. Moody’s – Rating Symbols and Definitions, January 2020 [pdf file] and
    Sovereign Default and Recovery Rates, 1983-2007 [pdf file]
  11. Salomon Brothers – The Risks of Sovereign Lending: Lessons from History [Word file]
  12. Social Science Research Network – Estimating Default Probabilities of Emerging Market Sovereigns: A New Look at a Not-So-New Literature and Are Rating Agencies Powerful? An Investigation into the Impact and Accuracy of Sovereign Ratings
  13. Standard&Poor’s – Default, Transition, and Recovery: 2018 Annual Sovereign Default And Rating Transition Study
  14. World Bank – Macroeconomics and Sovereign Risk Ratings [pdf file] and Shadow sovereign ratings for unrated developing countries [pdf file]

Political Risk

  1. BBC News – Political risk returns to the financial markets
  2. Forbes – Political Risk Can’t Be Avoided, But It Can Be Managed
  3. Globe and Mail – Markets ignore political risks until economic growth threatened
  4. IMF – How Does Political Instability Affect Economic Growth?
  5. INC.com – How to Calculate Political Risk [by Ian Bremmer]
  6. INSEAD – Identifying, assessing and mitigating political risk
  7. Institute for Economics and Peace – The Economic Cost of Violence Containment. A Comprehensive Assessment Of The Global Cost Of Violence [pdf file]
  8. MIGA – Investment And Political Risk In Conflict-Affected And Fragile Economies [pdf file]
  9. RAND – The cost of terrorism in Europe
  10. Tufts University – Building Capacity for Geopolitical Risk Analysis
  11. Universidad de Granada – The political risk analysis
  12. World Economic Forum – Conflict costs us $13.6 trillion a year. And we spend next to nothing on peace
Transfer Risk, Convertibility Risk, Sovereign Risk, Political Risk (Online Publications)

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